Rebounding key to UNC’s chances to beat Marquette

The ACC now has three teams left and the Big East two after Florida State whipped Notre Dame Sunday night.

Carolina could certainly lose to a Big East team, Marquette, but I agree with Dane Huffman’s assessment in his article “Marquette win is a break for UNC” that Syracuse’s zone would have given the Tar Heels trouble. The Heels would have needed to hit 9 or 10 threes to beat the Orange. The Heels have been averaging about half that over the last five games.

Marquette has fewer big guys to battle Zeller and Henson. The one really big guy they have is 6-foot-11 starting center Chris Otule who averages only five points and 3.5 rebounds a game. Compare that to Zeller who averages 15 points and seven rebounds a game and Henson who averages 12 points and 10 rebounds.

In fact, Marquette (which has only Otule over 6-foot-7) has only two guys who average over five rebounds a game and nobody that averages over seven. Most of the comparisons between the two teams are close. Carolina averages two points more a game. The two teams give up the same amount of points per game. The field goal percentages are almost identical.

Marquette shoots three percentage points better than Carolina from the free throw line. The three-pointers average and steals average are about the same.

The biggest difference is in rebounding where the Heels average more than five more a game. If the Heels hit the boards hard offensively and defensively, Marquette will be hard-pressed to score another upset.

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