Loss of Wiggins might not be a big deal for Carolina

Andrew Wiggins.
Andrew Wiggins.
As North Carolina basketball fans mourn the recruiting loss of Andrew Wiggins to Kansas, pundits are talking about how not getting Wiggins hurts the Tar Heels. But cheer up Carolina faithful, one-and-done players rarely translate to great seasons and even when they do, their loss after one season can hurt a basketball program as a whole.

Granted, I come from a prospective that it’s better to have a really good team player for three or four years than a great individual player for one year. It takes several months for any player, no matter how good, to fit in to a new team as a freshman. You say it’s the end-of-the-year conference and NCAA tournaments that really matter anyway?

Well, the No. 1 recruit of 2012 Shabazz Muhammad did score a bunch of points, averaging 18 points a game for UCLA last season, but the Bruins failed to win the PAC 12 Tournament and lost in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. Now that his freshman season is over, his NBA career begins and UCLA is left to recruit someone to take his place, after perhaps missing out on a better player because of Muhammad.

The No. 1 recruit of 2011 Austin Rivers played well as a freshman for Duke but the Blue Devils failed to win the ACC regular season, didn’t make the finals of the ACC Tournament and lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

The No. 1 recruit of 2010 Josh Selby, after a nine-game suspension and after injuries, averaged just eight points a game in 20 minutes a game for Kansas and then went pro after his first season.

Yes, No. 1 recruit of 2009 John Wall was a difference maker for Kentucky as he was named national player of the year and led the Wildcats to a SEC Tournament title (after failing to win the regular season). But the Wildcats lost in the Elite 8 and Wall was gone.

The No. 1 recruit of 2008 B.J. Mullens averaged just 8.8 points a game as a freshman with Ohio State when the Buckeyes finished fourth in the regular season, lost in the Big Ten tournament finals and lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to Siena.

The No. 1 recruit of 2007 O.J. Mayo had a good season for USC but the Trojans finished just 21-12 and fell in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Later, because of Mayo gift violations, USC had to vacate all 21 wins.

In fact, except for Rivers and Mullens, controversy and/or suspensions followed No. 1 recruits signings over the past six years.

The point is that you never know what’s going to happen. These can’t-miss No. 1 recruits can get injured, or under perform, or bring bad publicity, or ultimately make no difference in how far a team goes. Certainly, the fact that they leave after only one season leaves a hole in the program and can hurt future years.

The idea is to capture the genie in the bottle for one year but that almost never happens so why cry over missing out on a one-and-done No. 1 recruit? It may be a blessing in disguise.

Even if you disagree and rather take the risk with a one-year Wiggins, who some compare to LeBron James, don’t feel too sorry for Carolina. Despite losing underclassman Reggie Bullock, the Tar Heels have returning starters James Michael McAdoo, P.J. Hairston and point guard Marcus Paige along with sometimes starter Brice Johnson, experienced senior Leslie McDonald, sophomores Joel James, a banger, and J.P. Tokoto, a high-flying athlete. In addition, UNC’s recruiting class is ranked 17th nationally with two of the best high school players in the state in Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks. Hopefully, they’ll stick around awhile.

Usually there is a vast improvement from a freshman season to a sophomore season – if they make it to a sophomore season.

One thought on “Loss of Wiggins might not be a big deal for Carolina”

  1. One other positive for Carolina: The Tar Heels aren’t scheduled to meet Kansas next season.

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