While everybody but Duke was probably rooting for Virginia to defeat the Blue Devils, it remains to be seen if the Cavaliers 73-68 victory over the Devils will help or hurt NC State and North Carolina.
Miami isn’t going to lose its last three games so the Hurricanes are a lock for regular season championship and the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. That leaves three other teams to get byes in the first round of the ACC Tournament. A bye is a big advantage so Duke, Virginia, State and Carolina really want to finish second, third or fourth.
Certainly if the Tar Heels win out, which includes a win against Duke, the UVA win could help them get a higher seed and a bye in the ACC Tournament but probably only if Duke also loses to Miami at home Saturday.
Duke, 11-4, has games at home against Miami and Virginia Tech before finishing the season in Chapel Hill. Virginia, 10-5, plays at Boston College and Florida State before ending the season at home against Maryland. NC State, 9-6, plays at Georgia Tech, home against Wake and at Florida State. Finally, UNC, 10-5, hosts Florida State and travels to Maryland before Senior Day against Duke.
The Wolfpack has the easiest remaining schedule and would finish 12-6 if they win out. They’d need Carolina to lose just one game to be tied with the Tar Heels and, according to tie-breaker rules, would be seeded ahead of UNC if the one Tar Heel loss is to Duke because the Pack would have a better record against the teams ahead of UNC and State. It appears that a two-way tie between UVA and UNC for third would favor the Cavaliers if Miami and Duke are No. 1 and No. 2 because the Cavs will have a better record against Miami and Duke.
If there is a three-way tie for third between Carolina, State and Virginia, the Cavaliers would get third and the Tar Heels would get fourth by virtue of each team’s record against the other two. Virginia is 2-1 against Carolina and State; Carolina is 2-2 against State and Virginia; and State is 1-2 against Carolina and Virginia.
If State wins out, Duke loses to Miami and Carolina, for instance, Virginia loses to Maryland or Florida State and Carolina loses to Maryland, there would be a four-way tie and things get complicated. It appears that Virginia, by virtue of a 3-1 record against the other three, would be the second seed while Carolina, with a 3-2 record against the other three, would be third. Both Duke and State would be 2-3 against the others and I’m not sure which team would be the fourth seed.
The rules say that if the head-to-head doesn’t solve things then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings. Duke would have lost to Miami twice while State would have lost to Miami once but the tiebreaker system says that 0-1 is no better than 0-2. Both Duke and State are 0-1 against Virginia so then you’d have to go to the third place team. That would be Carolina and each team would be 1-1 against them. If I’m reading the tie-breaker rules right, and I haven’t gotten clarification from the ACC office yet, it sounds as if it could come down to how Duke and State did against Maryland or Florida State.
Of course if State wins out and Carolina loses to both Maryland and Duke, then there would be no need for a tie-breaker as the Tar Heels would be fifth and would not get a bye.
Here are the tie-breaker rules:
(1) When two teams are tied in the standings, regular season head-to-head results are used as the tiebreaker.
(2) If the tied teams played each other twice in the regular season and split their games, then each team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings (or in case of a tie for first place, the next highest position in the regular season standings) and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against a team or group is unequal. (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-0 is the same as 4-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-2; 0-2 is the same as 0-4). If the winning percentage of the tied teams is equal against a team, or a group of tied teams, continue down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
(3) If three or more teams are tied in the standings, the following procedures will be used:
a. The combined record of conference games between the tied teams involved will be compiled. Ties will be broken, and seedings assigned, based on the winning percentage of the combined conference records. The higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group is unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-0 is the same as 4-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-2; 0-2 is the same as 0-4).
b. If procedure (a) fails to break the tie, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage by a higher winning percentage.
c. If the tie is broken by (a) or (b) regarding one of more teams, but three or more teams remain tied, then procedures (a) and (b) will be reapplied among those tied teams only.
d. If two teams remain tied, procedures (1) and (2) will be followed.
(4) If there is more than one tie in the standings, and when utilizing the tie-breaking procedures there are a pair of teams tied, a team’s record against the combined tied teams (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures) is used, rather than performance against the individual tied teams.
(5) If procedures (2) and/or (3) fail to establish an advantage, a coin flip to break the tie will be conducted by the commissioner after the final regular season game before the Conference Championship.
(6) If a coin flip or draw (for a three or more team tie) is required, the procedure takes place immediately following the conclusion of the last regular season game prior to the Conference Championship.